Will the Taliban be able to reach a ceasefire or not?

Given the Taliban’s breach of the ceasefire agreement after the peace agreement with the United States, it is certain that the group will not agree to a ceasefire any time soon, and there are currently no plans for a ceasefire. This is not the work of this group, but the ceasefire is an excuse for sabotage and exploitation of the peace process, in which case there are many reasons that confirm the claim, some of which will be mentioned in this article.

  1. Lack of commitment to reduce violence: The Taliban have pledged to work with the United States to reduce violence and prevent attacks on cities where civilians are losing their lives. But in the months since the group’s peace deal with the United States, not only has violence not abated, but the Taliban have stepped up their war machine and reorganized their warfare, leading to suicide and offensive attacks. Civilians also said that a major example of this was an attack on a maternity hospital in Kabul’s Barchi Plain. Although the Taliban repulsed the attack on the hospital, a suicide bomber struck at a funeral in Nangarhar province a few days earlier. Killed and wounded, the Taliban denied it and only attacked the military convoy in Baghlan province, but the objective reality is clear to everyone that no group other than the Taliban can carry out such attacks in Kabul, and if they have It is suspected that the Taliban carried out these attacks on the orders of the group, in which case many documents have been made available to the public that the Taliban have recently been carrying out their military objectives in collusion with other terrorist groups, so we can say when this group reduces violence. They pledged not to abide by the ceasefire any time soon Will not be.

2- Duality in behavior: On the one hand, members of the Taliban group in the Qatar office regarding the ceasefire have the view that after the completion of the process of releasing the prisoners of this group from the Afghan government, inter-Afghan talks will begin and preparations have been made. The Afghan government has already released 3,000 prisoners from the country’s prisons, but it is clear that the group’s military commanders, who are in charge of the group’s war machine, have differing views on the issue of a ceasefire and the start of negotiations. They have Afghans. Mawlawi Mansour, one of the group’s military commanders, recently told the media that as long as foreign troops are in Afghanistan, the country is under occupation and it is not possible to establish a ceasefire before the withdrawal of these forces, as long as the Americans are here. There will be no ceasefire with the Kabul government. The question here is whether military commanders play a key role in the peace process or whether the group’s political leaders. Given the dichotomy in the Taliban’s behavior, two conclusions can be drawn from the group’s military and political performance. First, the Taliban want to use political tricks to paint more concessions and a better position for their position, and to confuse the minds of the Afghan people and the world, and to commit themselves to human values ​​and the realization of the peace process. Second, the military commanders of this group, in collusion with the Qatari political bureau, want to play military tricks so that this process can continue and the Qatari bureau can benefit more politically from the current situation. Contrary to this view, however, it is still possible for members of Qatar’s political bureau to have this process in place, and for military commanders to have a different view of the bureau’s performance, which is why they express their demands separately. The Qatari office has little authority to reduce or increase the war in Afghanistan, and it is the group’s military commanders who decide the fate of the group.

Therefore, according to what we have mentioned so far, it can be said that the Taliban do not believe in a ceasefire for the time being, and this may be due to the non-commitment of military commanders or the group’s political and military tricks, or the incompetence of its members in Qatar. Or the group, with the help of all its factions and supporters, may have sought to take advantage of this process rather than force them to make peace for the time being.